By Charles Soludo
I
need to preface this article with a few clarifications. I have taken a long
sabbatical leave from partisan politics, and it is real fun watching the drama
from the balcony. Having had my own
share of public service (I do not need a job from government), I now devote my
time and energy in pursuit of other passions, especially abroad. A few days
ago, I read an article in Thisday entitled “Where is Charles Soludo?”, and my
answer is that I am still there, only that I have been too busy with extensive
international travels to participate in or comment on our national politics and
economy. But I occasionally follow events at home. Since the survival and
prosperity of Nigeria are at stake, the least some of us (albeit, non-partisan)
must do is to engage in public debate.
As
the elections approach, I owe a duty to share some of my concerns. In September
2010, I wrote a piece entitled “2011 Elections: Let the Real Debate Begin” and
published by Thisday. I understand the Federal Executive Council discussed it,
and the Minister of Information rained personal attacks on me during the press
briefing. I noted more than six newspaper editorials in support of the issues
we raised. Beside other issues we raised, our main thesis was that the macro
economy was dangerously adrift, with little self-insurance mechanisms (and a
prediction that if oil prices fell below $40, many state governments would not
be able to pay salaries). I gave a subtle hint at easy money and exchange rate
depreciations because I did not want to panic the market with a strong
statement. Sadly, on the eve of the next elections, literally everything we
hinted at has happened. Part of my
motivation for this article is that five years after, the real debate is still
not happening.
The
presidential election next month will be won by either Buhari or Jonathan. For
either, it is likely to be a pyrrhic victory. None of them will be able to
deliver on the fantastic promises being made on the economy, and if oil prices
remain below $60, I see very difficult months ahead, with possible heady
collisions with labour, civil society, and indeed the citizenry. To be sure, the
presidential election will not be decided by the quality of ‘issues’ or
promises canvassed by the candidates. The debates won’t also change much
(except if there is a major gaffe by either candidate like Tofa did in the
debate with Abiola). My take is that more than 95% of the likely voters have
pretty much made up their minds based largely on other considerations. A few of
us remain undecided. During my brief visit to Nigeria, I watched some of the
campaign rallies on television. The tragedy of the current electioneering
campaigns is that both parties are missing the golden opportunity to sensitize
the citizenry about the enormous challenges ahead and hence mobilize them for
the inevitable sacrifices they would be called upon to make soon. Each is
promising an El-Dorado. Let me admit that the two main parties talk around the
major development challenges—corruption, insecurity, economy
(unemployment/poverty, power, infrastructure, etc) health, education, etc.
However, it is my considered view that none of them has any credible agenda to
deal with the issues, especially within the context of the evolving global
economy and Nigeria’s broken public finance.
The
UK Conservative Party’s manifesto for the last election proudly announced that
all its programmes were fully costed and were therefore implementable. Neither
APC nor PDP can make a similar claim. A
plan without the dollar or Naira signs to it is nothing but a wish-list. They
are not telling us how much each of their promises will cost and where they
will get the money. None talks about the broken or near bankrupt public finance
and the strategy to fix it. Goodluck-Jonathan-new In response to the question
of where the money will come from, I heard one of the politicians say that the
problem of Nigeria was not money but the management of resources. This is
half-truth. The problem is both. No matter how efficient a father (with a
monthly salary of N50,000) is at managing the family resources, I cannot see
how he could deliver on a promise to buy a brand new Peugeot 406 for each of
his three children in a year. Even with all the loopholes and waste closed,
with increased efficiency per dollar spent, there is still a binding budget
constraint. To deliver an efficient national transport infrastructure alone
will still cost tens of billions of dollars per annum even by corruption-free,
cost-effective means. Did I hear that
APC promises a welfare system that will pay between N5,000 and N10,000 per
month to the poorest 25 million Nigerians?
Just this programme alone will cost between N1.5 and N3 trillion per
annum. Add to this the cost of free primary education plus free meal (to be
funded by the federal budget or would it force non-APC state governments to
implement the same?), plus some millions of public housing, etc.
I
have tried to cost some of the promises by both the APC and the PDP, given
alternative scenarios for public finance and the numbers don’t add up. Nigerians would be glad to know how both
parties would fund their programmes. Do they intend to accentuate the huge
public debt, or raise taxes on the soon to-be-beleaguered private businesses,
or massively devalue the naira to rake in baskets of naira from the dwindling
oil revenue, or embark on huge fiscal retrenchment with the sack of labour and
abandonment of projects, and which areas of waste do they intend to close and
how much do they estimate to rake in from them, etc? I remember that Chief
Obafemi Awolowo was asked similar questions in 1978 and 1979 about his promises
of free education and free medical services. Even as a teenager, I was
impressed by how he reeled out figures
about the amounts he would save from various ‘waste’ including the tea/coffee
served in government offices. The point is that at least he did his homework
and had his numbers and I give credit to his team. Some 36 years later, the
quality of political debate and discourse seems to border on the pedestrian.
From the quality of its team, I did not expect much from the current
government, but I must confess that I expected APC as a party aspiring to take
over from PDP to come up with a knock-out punch.
Evidently,
from what we have read from the various versions of its manifesto as well as
the depth of promises being made, it does not seem that it has a better offer.
Let me digress a bit to refresh our memory on where we are, and thus provide
the context in which to evaluate the promises being made to us. Recall that the
key word of the 2015 budget is ‘austerity’.
Austerity? This is just within a few months of the fall in oil prices.
History repeats itself in a very cruel way, as this was exactly what happened
under the Shehu Shagari administration. Under the Shagari government, oil price
reached its highest in 1980/81. During the same period, Nigeria ratcheted up
its consumption and all tiers of government were in competition as to which
would out-borrow the other. Huge public debt was the consequence. When oil
prices crashed in early 1982, the National Assembly then passed the Economic
Stabilization (Austerity Measures) Act in one day— going through the first,
second, and third readings the same day. The austerity measures included the
rationing of ‘essential commodities’ and most states owed salary arrears.
Corruption was said to be pervasive, and as Sani Abacha said in that famous coup
speech, ‘unemployment has reached unacceptable proportions and our hospitals
have become mere consulting clinics’. General Muhammadu Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon
regime made the fight against corruption and restoration of discipline the
cardinal point of their administration which lasted for 20 months. I am not
sure they had a credible plan to get the economy out of the doldrums (although
it must be admitted that poverty incidence in Nigeria as of 1985 when they left
office was a just46%— according to the Federal Office of Statistics). We have
come full circle. If the experience under Shagari could be excused as an
unexpected shock, what Nigeria is going through now is a consequence of our
deliberate wrong choices. We have always
known that the unprecedented oil boom (in both price and quantity—despite oil
theft) of the last six years is temporary but the government chose to treat it
as a permanent shock. The parallels with the Shagari regime are troubling.
First,
at the time of oil boom, Nigeria again went on a consumption spree such that
the budgets of the last five years can best be described as ‘consumption
budgets’, with new borrowing by the federal government exceeding the actual
expenditure on critical infrastructure. Second, not one penny was added to the
stock of foreign reserves at a period Nigeria earned hundreds of billions from
oil. For comparisons, President Obasanjo met about $5 billion in foreign
reserves, and the average monthly oil price for the 72 months he was in office
was $38, and yet he left $43 billion in foreign reserves after paying $12
billion to write-off Nigeria’s external debt. In the last five years, the
average monthly oil price has been over $100, and the quantity also higher but
our foreign reserves have been declining and exchange rate depreciating. I note
that when I assumed office as Governor of CBN, the stock of foreign reserves
was $10 billion. The average monthly oil price during my 60 months in office
was $59, but foreign reserve reached the all-time peak of $62 billion (and
despite paying $12 billion for external debt, and losing over $15 billion
during the unprecedented global financial and economic crisis) I left behind
$45 billion. Recall also that our exchange rate continuously appreciated during
this period and was at N117 to the dollar before the global crisis and we
deliberately allowed it to depreciate in order to preserve our reserves. My calculation is that if the economy was
better managed, our foreign reserves should have been between $102 –$118
billion and exchange rate around N112 before the fall in oil prices. As of now,
the reserves should be around $90 billion and exchange rate no higher than N125
per dollar. Third, the rate of public debt accumulation at a time of
unprecedented boom had no parallel in the world.
While
the Obasanjo administration bought and enlarged the policy space for Nigeria,
the current government has sold and constricted it. What debt relief did for Nigeria was to
liberate Nigerian policymakers from the intrusive conditionalities of the
creditors and thereby truly allowing Nigeria independence in its public policy.
How have we used the independence?
Through our own choices, we have yet again tied the hands of future
policymakers. This time, the debt is not necessarily to foreign creditor
institutions/governments which are organized under the Paris club but largely
to private agents which is even more volatile. We call it domestic debt. But if
one carefully unpacks the bond portfolio, what percentage of it is held by
foreign private agents? And I understand the Government had removed the speed
bumps we kept to slow the speed of capital flight, and someone is sweating to
explain the gyrations in foreign reserves. I am just smiling! In sum, the
mismanagement of our economy has brought us once more to the brink. Government
officials rely on the artificial construct of debt to GDP ratio to tell us we
can borrow as much as we want. That is
nonsense, especially for an economy with a mono but highly volatile source of
revenue and forex earnings. The chicken will soon come home to roost. Today,
the combined domestic and external debt of the Federal Government is in excess
of $40 billion. Add to this the fact that abandoned capital projects littered
all over the country amount to over $50 billion. No word yet on other huge contingent
liabilities.
If
oil prices continue to fall, I bet that Nigeria will soon have a heavy debt
burden even with low debt to GDP ratio. Furthermore, given the current and
capital account regime, it is evident that Nigeria does not have enough foreign
reserves to adequately cover for imports plus short term liabilities. In essence, we are approaching the classic of
what the Shagari government faced, and no wonder the hasty introduction of
‘austerity measures’ again. Fourth, poverty incidence and unemployment are also
simultaneously at all-time high levels. According to the NBS, poverty incidence
grew to 69% in 2010 and projected to be
71% in 2011, with unemployment at 24%.
This is the worst record in Nigeria’s history, and the paradox is that
this happened during the unprecedented oil boom. *Jonathan and Buhari One theme
I picked up listening to the campaign rallies as well as to some of the
propagandists is the confusion about measuring government “performance”. Most
people seem to confuse ‘inputs’, or ‘processes’ with output. Earlier this
month, I had a dinner with a group of friends (14 of us) and we were
chit-chatting about Nigeria. One of us, an associate of President Jonathan
veered off to repeat a propaganda mantra that Jonathan had outperformed his
predecessors. He also reminded us that Jonathan re-based the GDP and that
Nigeria is now the biggest economy in Africa; etc.
It
was fun listening to the response by others. In sum, the group agreed that the
President had ‘outperformed’ his predecessors except that it is in reverse
order. First, my friend was educated that re-basing the GDP is no achievement:
it is a routine statistical exercise, and depending on the base year that you
choose, you get a different GDP figure.
Re-basing the GDP has nothing to do with government policy. Besides, as
naira-dollar exchange rate continues to depreciate, the GDP in current dollars
will also shrink considerably soon. We were reminded of Jonathan’s agricultural
‘revolution’. But someone cut in and noted that for all the propaganda, the
growth rate of the agricultural sector in the last five years still remains far
below the performance under Obasanjo. One of us reminded him that no other
president had presided over the slaughter of about 15,000 people by insurgents
in a peacetime; no other president earned up to 50% of the amount of resources
the current government earned from oil and yet with very little outcomes; no
other president had the rate of borrowing; none had significant forex earnings
and yet did not add one penny to foreign reserves but losing international
reserves at a time of boom; no other president had a depreciating exchange rate
at a time of export boom; at no time in Nigeria’s history has poverty reached
71% (even under Abacha, it was 67 -70%); and under no other president did
unemployment reach 24%. Surely, these are unprecedented records and he surely
‘outperformed’ his predecessors! What a
satire! One of those present took the satire to some level by comparing Jonathan
to the ‘performance’ of the former Governor of Anambra, Peter Obi. He noted that while Obi gloated about
‘savings’, there is no signature project to remember his regime except that his
regime took the first position among all states in Nigeria in the
democratization of poverty—- mass impoverishment of the people of Anambra.
According
to the National Bureau of Statistics, poverty rose under his watch in Anambra
from 20% in 2004 (lowest in Nigeria then) to 68% in 2010 (a 238%
deterioration!). Our friend likened it to a father who had no idea of what to
do with his resources and was celebrating his fat bank account while his
children were dying of kwashiorkor. He
pointed out that since it is the likes of Peter Obi who are the advisers to
Jonathan on how to manage the economy (thereby confusing micromanagement which
you do as a trader with macro governance) it is little wonder that poverty is
fast becoming another name for Nigeria. It was a very hilarious evening. My
advice to President Jonathan and his handlers is to stop wasting their time
trying to campaign on his job record. Those who have decided to vote for him
will not do so because he has taken Nigeria to the moon. His record on the
economy is a clear ‘F’ grade. As one reviews the laundry list of micro
interventions the government calls its achievements, one wonders whether such
list is all that the government could deliver with an unprecedented oil boom
and an unprecedented public debt accumulation. I can clearly see why reasonable
people are worried. Everywhere else in
the world, government performance on the economy is measured by some outcome
variables such as: income (GDP growth rate), stability of prices (inflation and
exchange rate), unemployment rate, poverty rate, etc. On all these scores, this
government has performed worse than its immediate predecessor— Obasanjo regime.
If we
appropriately adjust for oil income and debt, then this government is the worst
in our history on the economy. All statistics are from the National Bureau of
Statistics. Despite presiding over the biggest oil boom in our history, it has
not added one percentage point to the growth rate of GDP compared to the
Obasanjo regime especially the 2003- 07 period.
Obasanjo met GDP growth rate at 2% but averaged 7% within 2003- 07. The
current government has been stuck at 6% despite an unprecedented oil boom. Income (GDP) growth has actually performed
worse, and poverty escalated. This is the only government in our history where
rapidly increasing government expenditure was associated with increasing
poverty. The director general of NBS stated in his written press conference
address in 2011 that about 112 million Nigerians were living in poverty. Is
this the record to defend?
Obama
had a tough time in his re-election in 2012 because unemployment reached 8%.
Here, unemployment is at a record 24% and poverty at an all-time 71% but people
are prancing around, gloating about ‘performance’. As I write, the Naira
exchange rate to the dollar is $210 at the parallel market. What a historic
performance! Please save your breathe and save us the embarrassment. The
President promised Nigeria nothing in the last election and we did not get
value for money. He should this time around present us with his plan for the
future, and focus on how he would redeem himself in the second term—if he wins!
Sadly the government’s economic team is very weak, dominated by self-interested
and self-conflicted group of traders and businessmen, and so-called economic
team meetings have been nothing but showbiz time. The very people government
exists to regulate have seized the levers of government as policymakers and
most government institutions have largely been “privatized” to them. Mention
any major government department or agency and someone will tell you whom it has
been ‘allocated’ to, and the person subsequently nominates his minion to occupy
the seat. What do you then expect? The
economy seems to be on auto pilot, with confusion as to who is in charge, and
government largely as a constraint. There are no big ideas, and it is difficult
to see where economic policy is headed to.
My
thesis is that the Nigerian economy, if properly managed, should have been
growing at an annual rate of about 12% given the oil boom, and poverty and
unemployment should have fallen dramatically over the last five years. This is
topic for another day. So far, the Government’s response to the self-inflicted
crisis is, at best, laughable. They blame external shocks as if we did not
expect them and say nothing about the terrible policy choices they made. The
National Assembly had described the 2015 budget as unrealistic. The fiscal
adjustments proposed in the 2015 budget simply play to the gallery and just to
pander to our emotions. For a $540 billion economy, the so-called luxury tax amounts
to zero per cent of GDP. If the current
trend continues, private businesses will come under a heavy crunch soon. Having
put economics on its head during the boom time, the Government now proposes to
increase taxes during a prospective downturn and impose austerity measures.
Unbelievable! Fortuitously, just as he succeeded Shagari when Nigeria faced
similar situations, Buhari is once more seeking to lead Nigeria. But times have
changed, and Nigeria is largely different. First, this is a democracy and
dealing with corruption must happen within the ambit of the rule of law and due
process. Getting things done in a democracy requires complicated bargaining,
especially where the legislature, labour, the media, and civil society have
become strong and entrenched. Second, the size, structure and institutions of
the economy have fundamentally altered. The market economy, especially the
capital market and foreign exchange market, impose binding constraints and
discipline on any regime. Third, dealing with most of the other issues —
insecurity, unemployment/poverty, infrastructure, health, education, etc,
require increased, smarter, and more efficient spending. Increased spending
when the economy is on the reverse gear? If oil prices remain between 40- 60
dollars over the next two years, the current policy regime guarantees that
foreign reserves will continue the precipitous depletion with the attendant
exchange rate depreciation, as well as a probable unsustainable escalation in
debt accumulation, fiscal retrenchment or taxing the private sector with
vengeance. The scenario does not look pretty. The poor choices made by the
current government have mortgaged the future, and the next government would
have little room to manoeuvre and would inevitably undertake drastic but
painful structural adjustments. Nigerians loathe the term ‘structural
adjustment’.
With
falling real wages and depreciating currency, I can see any belated
attempt by the government to deal with
the bloated public sector pitching it against a feisty labour. I worry about regime stability in the coming
months, and I do not envy the next team. The seeming crisis is not destiny; it
is self-imposed. However, we must see it as an opportunity to be seized to fundamentally
restructure Nigeria’s political economy, including its fiscal federalism and
mineral rights. The current system guarantees cycles of consumption loop and I
cannot see sustainable long term prosperity without major systemic overhaul.
The proposals at the national conference merely tinker at the margins. In
totality, the outcome of the national conference is to do more of the same,
with minor amendments on the system of sharing and consumption rather than a
fundamental overhaul of the system for productivity and prosperity. President
Jonathan promises to implement the report of the national conference if he
wins. I commend him for at least offering ‘something’, albeit, marginal in my
view. I have not heard anything from the APC or Buhari regarding the national
conference report or what kind of federalism they envisage for Nigeria. In
Nigeria’s recent history, two examples under the military and civilian
governments demonstrate that where the political will exists, Nigeria has the
capacity to overcome severe challenges.
The first was under President Babangida. Not many Nigerians appreciate
that given the near bankrupt state of Nigeria’s finances and requirements for
debt resolution under the Paris Club, the country had little choice but to
undertake the painful structural adjustment programme (SAP).
I
want to state for the record that the foundation for the current market economy
we operate in Nigeria was laid by that regime (liberalization of markets
including market determined exchange rate, private sector-led economy including
licensing of private banks and insurance, de-regulation, privatization of
public enterprises under TCPC, etc). Just abolishing the import licensing
regime was a fundamental policy revolution. Despite the criticisms, these
policy thrusts have remained the pillars of our deepening market economy, and
the economy recovered from almost negative growth rate to average 5.5% during
the regime and poverty incidence at 42% in 1992. Under our democratic
experience, President Obasanjo inherited a bankrupt economy (with the lost decade
of the 1990’s GDP growth rate of 2.2% and hence zero per capita income growth
for the decade). His regime consolidated and deepened the market economy
structures (consolidation of the banking system which is powering the emergence
of a new but truly private sector-led economy and simultaneously led to a new
awareness and boom in the capital market; telecommunications revolution; new
pension regime; debt relief which won for Nigeria policy independence from the
World Bank and Paris Club; deepening of de-regulation and privatization including the unbundling of
NEPA under PHCN for privatization; agricultural revolution that saw yearly
growth rate of over 6% and remains unsurpassed ever since; sound monetary and
fiscal policy and growing foreign reserves that gave confidence to investors;
establishment of the Africa Finance Corporation which is leading infrastructure
finance in Africa; backward integration policy that saw the establishment and
growth of Dangote cement and others; established ICPC and EFCC to fight
corruption, etc).
The
economy roared to average yearly growth of 7% between 2003 and 2007 (although
average monthly oil price under his regime was $38), and poverty dropped from
estimated 70% in1999 to 54% in 2004.
Obasanjo was his own coordinating minister of the economy and chairman
of the economic management team— which he chaired for 90 minutes every week. I
met with him daily. In other words, he
did not outsource economic management. We expected that the next government
after Obasanjo would take the economy to the next level. So far, we have had two great slogans: the
7-point agenda and currently, the transformation agenda. They remain empty
slogans without content or direction. Let me suggest that the fundamental
challenge for the next government on the economy can be framed around the goal
of creating twelve million jobs over the next four years to have a dent on
unemployment and poverty. The challenge is to craft a development agenda to
deliver this within the context of broken public finance, and an economy in
which painful structural adjustments will be inevitable if current trends in
oil prices continue. Most other programmes on corruption, security, power,
infrastructure, etc, are expected to be instruments to achieve this objective.
So far, neither the APC nor the PDP has a credible programme for employment and
poverty reduction. The APC promises to create 20,000 jobs per state in the
first year, totalling a mere 720,000 jobs.
This sounds like a quota system and for a country where the new entrants
into the labour market per annum exceed two million. If it was intended as a
joke, APC must please get serious.
On
the other hand, President Jonathan targets two million jobs per annum but his
strategy for doing so is a Job Board— another committee of sort. Sorry, Mr. President, a Job Board is not a
strategy. The principal job Nigerians hired you to do for them is to create
jobs for them too. You cannot outsource that job, Sir. Creating 3 million jobs per annum under the
unfolding crisis would task our creativity and audacity to the limits. I heard
one politician argue that once we fix power, private sector would create jobs.
Not necessarily! Well, this government claims to have added 1,700MW to the
national grid and yet unemployment soars. Ask Greece, Spain, etc with power and
infrastructure and yet with high unemployment. Structural dislocations play a
key role. For example, currently in Nigeria, it is estimated that more than 60%
of graduates of our educational system are unemployable. You can understand why
many of us are amused when the government celebrates that it has established
twelve more glorified secondary schools as universities. I thought they would
have told us how many Nigerian universities made it in the league of the best 200
universities in the world. That would have been an achievement. Surely, creating millions of jobs in this
economy would, among other things, require ‘new money’ and extraordinary system
of coordination among the three tiers of government plus the private sector.
Unfortunately,
from what I read, the CBN is largely likely to be asleep at this time the
country needs the most revolutionary finance. This is a topic for another day.
Only the President can lead this effort. Moreover, we are waiting for the two parties/candidates
to spell out HOW they will create jobs, whether it is the 20,000 jobs per state
by APC or 2 million per annum by President Jonathan. Let us know how you arrived at the figures.
Whichever of the two that is declared winner will have his job cut out for him,
and I expect him to declare a national emergency on job creation. Surprisingly,
none of the parties/candidates has any grand vision about African economic
integration, led by Nigeria. There is no programme on how to make the naira the
de facto currency of ECOWAS or the international financial centre that can
attract more than $100 billion per annum. Where is the strategy for
orchestrating the revolutionary finance to power the economy during this
downturn? For President Jonathan, I find it shocking that the most important
initiative of his government to secure the future of the economy by Nigeria
refusing to sign the ruinous Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the
European Union is not even being mentioned.
President Obasanjo saved Nigeria from the potential ruin of an ECOWAS
single currency while to his credit Jonathan safeguarded our industrial
sector/economy by refusing to sign the EPA. Or does the government not
understand the import of that? It will
be interesting to know the APC’s strategy for exploiting strategic alliances
within Africa, China, and the world for Nigeria’s prosperity. If Buhari wins,
he will ride on the populist wind for “change”.
Most
people I have spoken to who have decided to vote for Buhari do not necessarily
know the specifics of what he would offer or how Nigeria would be different
under him. I asked my driver, Usman, whom he would vote for President. He
responded: “If they no rig the election, na Buhari everybody go vote for”. I
asked him why, and his next response sums it: “The man dey honest. In short,
people just want to see another face for that villa”. But if he wins, the honeymoon will be brief
and the pressure will be immense to magically deliver a ‘new Nigeria’ with no
corruption, no boko haram or insecurity, jobs for everyone, no poverty,
infrastructure and power in abundance, etc. As a first point, Buhari and his
team must realize that they do not yet have a coherent, credible agenda that is
consistent with the fundamentals of the economy currently. The APC manifesto
contains some good principles and wish-lists, but as a blue print for Nigeria’s
security and prosperity, it is largely hollow. The numbers do not add up. Thus,
his first job is to present a credible development agenda to Nigerians. The
second key challenge for Buhari and his team will be to transit and transform
from a group of what I largely refer to as aggrieved people’s congregation to
build a true political party with a soul from the patchwork of political
associations. It is surely easier to oppose than to govern. This should not worry us much. After all,
even the PDP which has been in power for 16 years is still an assembly of
people held together by what I refer to as dining table politics. I am not sure
how many members can tell you what their party stands for or its mission and
vision for Nigeria. The third but more difficult agenda is cobbling together a
truly ‘progressive team’ that will begin to pick the pieces. The lesson of history is that the best
leaders have been the ones who went beyond their narrow provincial enclaves to
recruit talents and mobilize capacities for national transformation. In
Nigeria’s history, the two presidents who made the most fundamental
transformation of the economy, Babangida and Obasanjo, were exceptional in the
quality of the teams they put together. I therefore pray that Buhari will be
magnanimous in victory – if he wins—to put together a ‘team Nigeria’ for the
rescue mission. If Jonathan wins, then God must have been magnanimous to give him
a second chance to redeem himself. Most people I know who support Jonathan do
so either out of self-interest or fear of the unknown. As a friend summed it: the devil you know is
better than the angel you do not know.
One person assured me that we would see a ‘different Jonathan’ if he
wins as he has been rattled by the harsh judgment of history on his presidency
so far. I just pray that he is
right.
In
that case, I would just draw the President’s attention to two issues: First,
beside the coterie of clowns who literally make a living with the sing-song of
transformation agenda, President Jonathan must know that it remains an empty
slogan. His greatest challenge is how to save himself from the stranglehold of
his largely provincial palace jesters who tell him he has done better than God,
and seek out ‘enemies’ and friends who can help him write his name in history.
Propaganda won’t do it. Second, Jonathan must claw back his powers as President
of Nigeria. He largely outsourced them, and must now roll his sleeves for a new
beginning. I take liberty to tell you this brutal truth: if you are not
re-elected, there is little to remember your regime after the next few years.
On 7th January 2004, I made a special presentation to an expanded economic
management team to set agenda for the new year (as chief economic adviser). The
focus of my presentation was for us to identify seven iroko trees that would be
the flagship markers for the administration as well as how to finance them. I
use the same framework to evaluate your administration. What I say to you, Mr.
President, is that your record of performance so far is like a farmland filled
with grasses. Yes, they are many but there is no tree, let alone any iroko
tree, that stands out. Think about this.
The
beginning of wisdom for every President in his second term is to admit that he
is racing against time to cement his legacy. So far, your report card is not
looking great. You need a team of big
and bold thinkers, as well as with excellent execution capacity. So far, it is not working! Under the
executive presidential system, Nigerians elected you to manage their economy.
You cannot outsource that job. Our constitution envisages a federal
coordination of the economy, and that function is performed by the National
Economic Council (NEC) with Vice-President as chairman. Indeed, the
constitution and other laws of Nigeria envisage the office of the VP as the
coordinator on the economy. All major economic institutions of the federal
government are, by law, chaired by the Vice-President including the national
planning (see functions of the national planning commission as coordinator of
federal government economic and development programmes), debt management
office, National Council on Privatization, etc. As chairman of National
Planning (with Ministers of Finance, Agriculture, CBN governor, etc as
members), the VP oversees the federal planning and coordination. Then the
Constitution mandates the VP as representative of the federal government to
chair the NEC, with only CBN governor and state governors as members—to
coordinate national economy between federal and states. No minister is a member
of NEC. Many people do not understand the logic of the design of our
constitution and the role of the VP. Of
course, the buck stops on the desk of Mr. President. Only the President and VP
have our mandate to govern us. Every other person is an adviser/assistant. I
bet that you will only appreciate this article AFTER you leave office. Now that
you are in power, truth will only hurt! Be
assured that those of us who are prepared to die for Nigeria will never spare
you or anyone else this bitter truth. Nigeria must survive and prosper beyond
Buhari or Jonathan!
Chukwuma
Charles Soludo, CFR, was former CBN
Governor.
The Soludo Debate: January 25, 2015 On Elections 2015.
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